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  • After a slow start to the season, Cortana and Elo have caught fire in recent weeks.
  • The two models we’re tracking have correctly picked 65% of the games this season.
  • Cortana has nailed 78% of the games in the last 6 weeks.

The NFL season is now in Week 13, and the two computer models we are tracking are still on fire.

We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft’s digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.

In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team’s winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Both models have been on fire in recent weeks. Cortana went 12-4 in Week 12 and is now 66-19 (78%) over the last six weeks and 117-59 (66%) overall. Elo has now fallen six games back at 111-65 (63%), but that is more of a testament to how hot Cortana has been.

Here are the picks for Week 13, with each model’s percent chance of winning in parentheses. Games in bold are where the two models disagree on who has the best chance to win. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.


  • Washington Redskins (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys — COWBOYS (Elo 61%, Cortana 51%)


  • Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3) — RAVENS (Elo 60%, Cortana 51%)
  • San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-3) — BEARS (Elo 72%, Cortana 55%)
  • Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3) — FALCONS (Elo 61%, Cortana 53%)
  • New England Patriots (-9) at Buffalo Bills — PATRIOTS (Elo 73%, Cortana 80%)
  • Denver Broncos (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins — DOLPHINS (Elo 57%), BRONCOS (Cortana 55%)
  • Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-7) — TITANS (Elo 66%, Cortana 66%)
  • Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at New York Jets — CHIEFS (Elo 62%, Cortana 63%)
  • Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5) — JAGUARS (Elo 75%, Cortana 70%)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-2) — PACKERS (Elo 63%, Cortana 53%)
  • Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-13.5) — CHARGERS (Elo 89%, Cortana 75%)
  • New York Giants at Oakland Raiders (-9) — RAIDERS (Elo 71%, Cortana 77%)
  • Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4.5) — SAINTS (Elo 66%, Cortana 57%)
  • Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Arizona Cardinals — RAMS (Elo 57%, Cortana 78%)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (-6) at Seattle Seahawks — EAGLES (Elo 52%, Cortana 69%)


  • Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals — STEELERS (Elo 66%, Cortana 75%)

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